A measure on the November poll that might double the county’s quarter-percent homeless gross sales tax is edging nearer to the bulk it could must move in a brand new ballot of possible Los Angeles County voters.
These saying they might vote for the measure outnumbered these opposing by 49% to 33% in a survey taken in late September, widening its lead by 5 share factors over responses to an earlier ballot. In August, 47% of possible voters stated they might vote sure and 36% no. The proportion of voters who have been undecided remained at 17%.
The variations, nevertheless, fell inside the margins of error of the 2 surveys. The ballot, carried out between Sept. 25 and Oct. 1 by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Research and co-sponsored by The Instances, had a margin of error of three share factors.
“When I look at 49% yes in the current poll and 47% in the August poll, in a statistical sense, there really hasn’t been much change,” stated Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Ballot.
The brand new survey reinforces his conclusion that the race is shut, DiCamillo stated.
He stated the late September ballot was the primary to current possible voters with the official poll abstract that they are going to see when voting, and this provides to its credibility.
“I like this survey a little more since they are reacting to what they will actually see when voting.” DiCamillo stated.
If it passes, Measure A will repeal Measure H, a quarter-percent gross sales tax authorized by voters in 2017 to fund homeless companies, and exchange it with a half-percent gross sales tax anticipated to generate greater than $1 billion yearly. The brand new measure would increase the usage of that cash by earmarking funds to homelessness prevention and housing improvement.
If not changed, the Measure H tax would expire in 2027. The brand new tax, if adopted, would stay in impact except repealed by voters.
Responses to a second query on the survey confirmed meager optimism that the funds generated by Measure A can be efficient.
Solely 33% stated they thought Measure A would “greatly reduce homelessness” in contrast with 38% who thought it could not, leaving 29% undecided.
That response echoed an identical response in August to a query concerning the effectiveness of Measure H. Solely 30% of respondents stated they have been very or considerably happy “with the way the money raised under Measure H has been spent.” Fifty-seven % have been dissatisfied.
“That’s the sticking point on this whole thing,” DiCamillo stated. Survey respondents “want to see progress, and they really haven’t seen a lot yet. Our August poll showed some dissatisfaction. There is some skepticism about what this is likely to do.”
A draw back for the measure within the survey outcomes is that because the election attracts close to, voters who haven’t been bought on a measure usually tend to vote no.
“It’s a safer vote,” DiCamillo stated. However he added that campaigns have an impact.
“If most of the messages are coming from the yes side, that is definitely a plus,” he stated. “Really all they need to do is bring 3 or 4 points to their side.”
Proponents of Measure A have raised about $4 million to put it up for sale, and their marketing campaign is simply ramping up, stated Tommy Newman, vp of public affairs for United Means of Higher Los Angeles, one of many measure’s major backers.
“We’ve started knocking on people’s doors and doing volunteer phone banks every week,” Newman stated. Data selling the measure has additionally been mailed.
In talking with voters, the marketing campaign has discovered these nonetheless undecided receptive to the message that companies and housing help can be in danger for tens of 1000’s of individuals if Measure H weren’t changed.
Components of the brand new measure that weren’t in Measure H are additionally interesting, Newman stated. Amongst them are accountability procedures with concrete targets and metrics to measure outcomes, and investments in prevention and inexpensive housing.
Tabulations of the survey present that Measure A fares higher among the many younger — with 56% in assist amongst these youthful than 40 — and the liberal, with 71% in favor. These incomes lower than $40,000 yearly have been most supportive of the difficulty, with 57% in favor, 37% opposed and solely 6% undecided.
Essentially the most putting differential was the gender hole. Girls favored the measure 60% to solely 22% towards, whereas males opposed it with 47% towards and 37% in favor.
That could possibly be a constructive signal for the marketing campaign. as a result of ladies normally outnumber males on the polls, DiCamillo stated.
“If you’re the proponents, if you had to choose one side, you‘d rather be ahead among women,” he stated.
Berkeley ISG will conduct another ballot close to the top of this month.
“If we find in late October it is above 50%, I would think its chances for passage would be pretty good,” DiCamillo stated.
