Within the closing weeks earlier than the Nov. 5 election, a measure that might double the county’s quarter-percent homeless gross sales tax was closing in on the bulk it must go, a brand new ballot of doubtless Los Angeles County voters discovered.
Half of these surveyed stated they might vote for Measure A, or already had executed so, within the ballot taken by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Research and co-sponsored by The Occasions.
That was a acquire of 1 share level over the earlier IGS ballot in September and three share factors above its August ballot. Thirty-four % stated they might vote no, or already had, up from 33% in September however down from 36% in August. Sixteen % remained undecided, didn’t vote both manner on the measure or couldn’t recall how they voted.
“These numbers are very stable,” stated Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Ballot. “It’s close.”
The survey, performed Oct. 22 to 29, had a margin of error of plus or minus three share factors, making it unimaginable to say whether or not the 50% help means the measure is successful or shedding.
However the upward development was a very good signal for the Measure A marketing campaign, DiCamillo stated. “It’s not trending against them.”
One other constructive got here from the responses of the almost 26% of respondents who had already voted. They favored Measure A by 54% to 31%, in contrast with 49% to 35% for many who had not but voted.
“They’re the likeliest of likely voters,” DiCamillo stated. “If you’re on the yes side, that would be the group you would want to have in the bank.”
Nevertheless, DiCamillo famous these outcomes could possibly be skewed by the historic desire of Republicans to vote in particular person. Help for Measure A amongst Republicans was solely 19% whereas 65% of Democrats supported it.
If it passes, Measure A will repeal Measure H, a quarter-percent gross sales tax accepted by voters in 2017 to fund homeless providers, and exchange it with a half-percent gross sales tax anticipated to generate greater than $1 billion yearly. If not changed, the Measure H tax would expire in 2027. The brand new tax, if adopted, would stay in impact except repealed by voters.
The brand new measure would broaden the attain of the present one by earmarking almost 40% of the funds to homelessness prevention and inexpensive housing. Sixty % would go towards complete homelessness providers, basically changing the prevailing income from Measure H. A few of that might be eaten up by will increase within the reimbursement fee for interim housing proposed to enter impact subsequent yr. About $175 million, or 26% of the Measure H funds, goes to packages that might have will increase of between 50% and 100% by July.
Opponents, together with the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Assn., object to the measure having no sundown date and argue that it’s a new tax placed on the poll by “so-called ‘experts’ who have already received hundreds of millions of dollars for homeless programs while the problem got worse” and can “get the contracts to operate the same failed homelessness programs.”
In addition they object to what they referred to as a “court-created loophole” that makes the measure simpler to go.
A coalition of nonprofit organizations together with United Manner of Better Los Angeles and the California Group Basis certified the measure for the poll. As a result of it’s a citizen initiative, underneath a 2020 determination by the fifth Appellate Court docket, it’s exempt from the two-thirds majority required of government-initiated taxes and may win with a easy majority.
Backers raised about $4 million each to collect signatures and for a media marketing campaign. The California Group Basis, which contributed $2.1 million to the marketing campaign, has additionally invested one other $4 million in a neighborhood organizing drive to generate help, stated the group’s president and chief government, Miguel Santana.
The marketing campaign was ending with an aggressive phone drive to tell voters of what Measure H had completed, stated Tommy Newman, United Manner vice chairman for public affairs.
“We’ve talked to more than 100,000 voters on the phone,” Newman stated. “This is the time voters make their decisions.”
Newman stated the marketing campaign’s polling exhibits a rise in help when voters study extra concerning the measure. The No. 1 argument is that homelessness would go up 28% if H expires, a projection made in a report by the Los Angeles County chief government.
“Your average voter isn’t quite sure what progress has or hasn’t happened,” Newman stated. “Learning that there are tens of thousands of people who are receiving housing and services now and that money would go away is the first time many voters realize what has happened with the previous work.”
